San Francisco Giants: Comeback team of the year?

There’s no doubt that Tim Lincecum of the San Francisco Giants should start for the National League in the MLB All-Star Game on Tuesday in St. Louis.

Not only is Lincecum the reigning NL Cy Young award winner, he also:

Leads the league in winning percentage (.833)
Is tied for the lead in wins (10)
Ranks second in ERA (2.33)

Lincecum and All-Star teammate Main Cain certainly form the league’s best 1-2 duo.

Don’t be surprised if they lead the Giants to the wild card berth (finishing behind the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL West.)

After them, San Francisco’s starting rotation isn’t that shabby.

Despite currently being on the DL, Randy Johnson has shown he still has something left at the age of 45.

Barry Zito isn’t worth anything near his $18 million annual contract for each of seven seasons, but he is pitching well enough to be a factor in the Giants’ success again.

These four could provide the Giants with a formidable rotation if/when they make the playoffs.

Considering San Francisco hasn’t finished better over the past four seasons than 75-87 in 2005, it could be called the “comeback team of the year.”

Pitching is best in NL West

You may not have noticed because of the East Coast media bias, but …

Did you see where seven of the 13 National League All-Star pitchers are from the NL West?

Without a doubt, the best overall pitching in MLB resides in the NL West.

For proof, check out the All-Star pitchers from the division:

Heath Bell, San Diego Padres: Leads the NL with 23 saves. Anybody in San Diego still think he can’t replace Trevor Hoffman?

Chad Billingsley, Los Angeles Dodgers: Among four pitchers tied for second in the league with nine wins.

Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers: Leads all MLB relievers with 65 strikeouts, averaging near 15 strikeouts per nine innings.

Matt Cain, San Francisco Giants: Tied with teammate Tim Lincecum for the NL’s best winning percentage (.818) with a 9-2 record and third in the league in ERA (2.48)

Dan Haren, Arizona Diamondbacks: His 2.16 ERA leads the league; and he’s even 8-5 with an Arizona team that is 25-44 when he doesn’t figure in the decision.

Tim Lincecum, Giants: The 2008 NL Cy Young winner is tied with teammate Cain for best NL winning percentage and is second in ERA (2.23).

Jason Marquis, Colorado Rockies: OK, how many of you actually know that Marquis is tied for the major-league lead with 10 wins?

There’s no question that pitching is best in the NL West.

Adrian Gonzalez: Superstar in the making

Adrian Gonzalez of the San Diego Padres is only fourth in the National League balloting for All-Star Game first basemen.

Sad.

If Gonzalez (a) played in a big market and (b) played in a smaller ballpark … you could make an argument that he’s the best player in baseball.

Thanks to Marc Normandin of Baseball Prospectus, here are some interesting statistics on how Gonzalez is held back by playing in huge Petco Park.

Through June, Gonzalez had 24 homers and 48 RBI. If he were playing elsewhere:

He would have 30 home runs and 57 RBI at Coors Field in Colorado. He would have 30 HRs and 58 RBI at the new Yankee Stadium in New York.

Not only that, pitchers have basically stopped pitching to Gonzalez because he is surrounded by such a weak lineup in San Diego.

He has walked nearly 20 percent of the time this season … a rate that keeps increasing monthly.

On top of it all, he is superb defensively at first base.

Gonzalez may not get much attention nationally, but he’d be touted as a superstar if he performed for ESPN’s favorite teams including the Yankees, Boston Red Sox and New York Mets.

Why are A Rod, Manny potential 2009 All Stars?

Alex Rodriguez is third in the American League All-Star voting at third base.

Manny Ramirez is fourth among National League outfielders in the voting.

So much for whether a person’s drug usage has an impact on how the fans feel ... at least when they vote.

There’s more reason than drug history not to vote for either player.

A Rod did not even begin his season with the New York Yankees until May 10 due to hip surgery in March.

Ramirez has not played for the Los Angeles Dodgers since May 6 because he is serving his 50-game suspension for taking performance-enhancing drugs.

Apparently, a guy (A Rod) can play 2 ½ weeks after an offseason plagued by questions about past drug involvement, yet still be considered an “All-Star.”

Or a guy (Manny) – who won’t even be eligible to come back till 11 days before the All-Star game – is still considered a “star” by many. (And considering Manager Joe Torre will send him to the minors for at least a week upon his return, Manny may not even be in the majors at the All-Star break.)

What keeps fans voting for these two guys?

Either they don’t know any better … or that’s the way it goes in New York and Los Angeles.

Adrian Gonzalez: All Star on, off the field

It’s nice to see Adrian Gonzalez of the Padres finally getting some recognition as the team’s lone 2008 All Star.

If you haven’t heard of Gonzalez and live off the West Coast, join the majority. The big boys at ESPN, Fox, etc. just simply don’t promote anything or anyone west of the Mississippi.

Here are a couple of things you would know about Gonzalez if he played on the East Coast:

He’s fourth in the National League in RBI (71) and sixth in home runs (22), despite playing his home games at a pitcher’s park called Petco Park.

He’s also a well-above average first baseman defensively and was the first pick in the nation by the Florida Marlins in 2000 out of Eastlake High School in Chula Vista, Calif.

Jon Sciambi, the outstanding play-by-play announcer of the Atlanta Braves, hit it on the nose over the weekend when mentioning that players like Gonzalez get overlooked on the West Coast.

“I think there is reality as it relates to the East Coast bias,” Sciambi said on the SportSouth telecast of a Padres-Atlanta Braves game.

Gonzalez credits much of his turnaround in the past year or two to his religious faith.

You can find out more about Gonzalez, an All-Star on the field and off, by visiting his new Web site at http://www.agonzalez23.com/

Klesko: Padres' best first baseman this decade?

As much as Adrian Gonzalez deserves to be making his first All-Star appearance for the Padres next week at Yankee Stadium, there was another Padre first baseman doing quite well at the break this decade.

Back in 2001, All-Star Ryan Klesko was having an even better year than Gonzalez is in 2008 nearing the mid-summer classic.

Here are Klesko’s 2001 stats at the All-Star break vs. Gonzalez’ going into the final weekend before the All-Star game:

Doubles: Klesko 22, Gonzalez 15
Home runs: Klesko 17, Gonzalez 22
RBI: Klesko 75, Gonzalez 70
Average: Klesko .297, Gonzalez .279
On-base percentage: Klesko .406, Gonzalez .348
Slugging percentage: Klesko .556, Gonzalez .510

While Klesko had a better first half seven years ago than Gonzalez is now, there are also mitigating factors.

Klesko played on a halfway decent team in 2001 that finished 79-83. Gonzalez is currently on a pathetic team at 36-56.

The sad thing is that as the Padres get worse and worse in 2008, more and more teams will continue to pitch around Gonzalez.

Will Adrian Gonzalez hit 50 home runs?

Local media members are tripping all over themselves, trying to figure out which person first said Adrian Gonzalez should represent the Padres in the 2008 All-Star Game.

Let us be the first to ask: Will Gonzalez hit 50 home runs this season?

It looks like he very well could.

Gonzalez already has 15 homers one-third of the way into the season, 10 coming in May.

He’s two off the club record for home runs in a month, set by Greg Vaughn in May 1998 on his way to an all-time team record of 50 homers.

The difference in teams is immense: Vaughn played on a team that went to the World Series; Gonzalez is on a team with the worst record in the National League.

This brings up the point that opposing teams will likely start pitching around Gonzalez because he is the one hitter to fear in the Padres’ lineup.

That being said, Gonzalez is one of the best there is at taking an outside pitch and going the opposite way over the left field wall.

As the Padres limp through the last four months of the season, at least the Gonzalez home run watch will be something worth talking about.

Time for a two-week break

It’s time.

Time for a two-week break from blogging, that is.

Our first five months have been quite a ride.

You always want to remember the high highs:

Predicting back in late April that Jake Peavy of the Padres would start the All-Star game.
Saying in early May that the Padres should cut their losses and cut David Wells.

But let’s forget about the low lows:

Thinking that the Chargers might pick a linebacker in the first round of the NFL draft.
Forecasting that Barry Bonds would break the Major League Baseball home run record in Petco Park (thank goodness we were wrong!)

We will continue the blogging ride on Sept. 4, the day after Labor Day.

See you then.

Fighting Phillies are in town

These types of pitching match-ups don’t come along that often.

It’s All-Star Cole Hamels for Philadelphia vs. All-Star Chris Young for the Padres tonight at Petco Park.

What makes the showdown even more intriguing is that Hamels is a local product from Rancho Bernardo High.

Hamels will be pitching in Petco Park for the second time. He gave up three runs in 5 2-3 innings with no decision in San Diego on July 17, 2006.

“My heart was definitely beating the whole time,” Hamels said afterwards. “I haven't had that excitement in a long time. It was great to pitch in my hometown.”

Hamels (11-4, 3.83 ERA) is one win behind National League leader Carlos Zambrano of the Chicago Cubs.

Young (8-3, 1.97), meanwhile, has virtually taken over from Jake Peavy as ace of the Padres.

He leads the majors in ERA and has held the opposition scoreless in five of his last eight starts.

According to the latest odds, the Padres are a 13-10 favorite to win tonight.

Advantage, Young.

Peavy is fine: Or is he?

It’s just another start for Jake Peavy against the New York Mets tonight.

Or is it?

The Padres’ ace was pushed back three days in the rotation following the All-Star break because of sore biceps.

“We felt as though it's probably in the best interest of Jake and the club just to push him back a couple days, let his arm rest,” Padres manager Bud Black told Padres.com. “He went at it pretty hard in the first half, and his arm was getting a little weary leading up to the break, and we just felt as though the extra two days would benefit his arm.”

Peavy has only pitched one inning since July 5; that coming in his start for the National League in last Tuesday’s All-Star game.

The bump-back in the rotation may seem like no big deal, until you consider Peavy’s history.

There have been times in the past when the team said he had a little soreness, and that’s all turned out to be. Other times, it was more than soreness.

Peavy is 0-2 with a 3.32 ERA in his last three games. Is it a blip on the radar, or a sign to beware of possible things to come?

We’ll start finding out tonight.

All-Star Game is losing proposition for Padres

Trevor Hoffman could breathe a little sigh of relief Tuesday night.

Or did you not see how American League relievers J.J. Putz of Seattle and Francisco Rodriguez of Anaheim suffered ninth-inning meltdowns in the All-Star Game?

Hoffman had the same difficulties last year, allowing two ninth-inning runs and becoming the losing pitcher.

Putz and Rodriguez both had their problems last night … and they’re lucky not to have blown the game.

The Padres did suffer another All-Star setback in San Francisco.

Chris Young became the losing pitcher after allowing an inside-the-park home run to Ichiro Suzuki.

This means San Diego has been the home of the All-Star Game’s losing pitcher for two straight years.

Since this is only an “exhibition” game (don’t tell Commissioner Bud Selig), Young and the Padres can certainly shake it off before returning to play Friday night in Arizona.

Peavy deserves All-Star honor

It’s truly an honor for Jake Peavy to be starting tonight’s Major League Baseball All-Star Game for the National League.

Peavy is the type of guy you’d like to have for a teammate because he backs you 100 percent, even if it’s your error that costs him a game.

In fact, the Padres ace is probably as good as it gets when it comes to the teammate category.

The only concern about Peavy starting the All-Star Game is that he tends to get too pumped up for these types of situations.

If he can temper himself, he should be fine – and maybe he’ll even earn the most valuable player as Padres pitcher LaMarr Hoyt did while starting the 1985 All-Star Game.

Last year’s NL starter, Brad Penny of the Dodgers, was never the same after the All-Star contest. He had a horrible second half and probably kept the Dodgers from winning the NL West outright from the Padres.

Peavy can only hope that he one-ups Penny when it comes to the second half of 2007.

And by the way, don’t forget who first predicted Peavy would start the All-Star Game in a blog titled “Peavy looking like an All-Star.” As a reminder, check out this blog from April 27.

Thank you.

Peavy holding a winning hand?

Jake Peavy is turning up all aces.

Opponents’ aces, that is.

Peavy got a taste of it last Sunday when he was out-dueled by Josh Beckett of the Boston Red Sox, 4-2.

He’ll dive headfirst again when matched up Saturday night at Dodger Stadium against Brad Penny.

Beckett was 10-1 when he battled Peavy. Penny comes into Saturday with the same mark.

Of course, Peavy is no slouch at 9-2 for the Padres.

Last season, Peavy finished just 11-14 in his first go-round as staff ace. (Woody Williams, believe it or not, was the opening day starter in 2005.)

The difference in Peavy this year is that he’s healthy. He was never quite right in 2006 after overextending himself in the preseason World Baseball Classic.

If Peavy wants to be the elite in the National League … as opposed to one of the elite … a good way to start would be beating Penny, the NL starter in last year’s All-Star game.

Hensley will soon replace Germano

This just in: Clay Hensley will replace Justin Germano in the Padres starting rotation around the All-Star break.

Impossible, you say?

After all, Germano is 4-0 with a 1.74 ERA. Hensley is 1-3 with a 7.62 ERA for the Padres … and now pitching in the minors.

What will change?

Starting tonight with the Seattle Mariners, some teams will see Germano for the second time this season. And they’re going to love jumping on that hanging breaking ball they just missed the first time.

Hensley, meanwhile, has much better movement on his ball than Germano.

So don’t be surprised when the Padres alter their pitching rotation about mid-season.

Black manages Peavy well

Bud Black has done a masterful job of managing San Diego Padres pitcher Jake Peavy.

Black continues to move Peavy up in the rotation after off days to maximize his ace’s production, especially at home.

Through Black’s maneuverability, Peavy has pitched the first and last games on each of the last two homestands. In fact, Peavy will make his first road start in his last five appearances when he pitches tonight at Washington.

Not that the star right-hander has failed away from home. In his last road start May 6 at Florida, he allowed just one run and one hit in seven innings while striking out 10 and earning the victory.

Oh, and there’s another part to Black’s strategy of pitching Peavy tonight and moving Justin Germano back to tomorrow.

It means that the Padres top three starters – Chris Young, Greg Maddux and Peavy – will likely pitch in that order during a three-game home series against the hated Los Angeles Dodgers that starts Tuesday.

This blog first predicted on April 27 that Peavy would be the National League’s All-Star starting pitcher this year. That hasn’t changed with his 7-1 record and 1.47 ERA.

Black deserves credit for doing an all-star job of setting up Peavy in his rotation.

Perez: The one that got away

A straight-up trade of Brian Giles to the Padres for Jason Bay alone would have been a great deal for the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2003.

Giles is a descending former star. Bay is a rising star.

But don’t forget, the Pirates also received pitcher Oliver Perez in the trade.

So, who got the best of the trade overall? Try the New York Mets.

Perez is now pitching like an All-Star for the Mets. He is 6-3 with a 2.69 ERA, and appears a pretty good bet to join Padres ace Jake Peavy on the 2007 National League All-Star team.

Last season, Perez was traded by the Pirates along with pitcher Roberto Hernandez to the Mets for Xavier Nady, another former Padre. Yes, that’s the same Nady who helped the Pirates beat the Padres, 4-1, Tuesday night.

Perez and Peavy broke in with the Padres during the same 2002 weekend series against the New York Yankees at Qualcomm Stadium.

It’s scary to think what it would be like still have those two in the same rotation!

Peavy looking like an All-Star

You heard it here first: Jake Peavy will be the National League’s starting pitcher in the 2007 All-Star Game.

Peavy is on fire now for the San Diego Padres.

In his last start, he tied a team record (his own) with 16 strikeouts against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Only a questionable call on a check-swing kept Peavy from tying Tom Seaver’s all-time Major League Baseball record of 10 consecutive strikeouts, set against the Padres in 1970.

Peavy is no one-game wonder in 2007. He definitely has a trend going.

In four of his five starts, he has allowed just two runs total in 27 innings. During the other start, he gave up five runs (four earned) in 5 1/3 innings of an 11-5 win over Arizona. Peavy had a shutout through four innings, and then ran out of gas after running the bases on a triple with a head-first slide. He also doubled in the game.

His record thus far? Three wins, no losses and an ERA of 1.67. His 36 strikeouts are second in the NL to Philadelphia’s Cole Hamels, who has 37.

Peavy, an All-Star is 2005, is coming off a sub-par 2006 season when he went 11-14 with a 4.09 ERA. He was never completely right physically last season after pushing himself too hard in the 2006 World Baseball Classic.

If Peavy has a fault, it is forcing himself to go harder than the situation dictates. That’s certainly what happened in the 2006 World Baseball Classic; and it cost him earlier this year with the unnecessary head-first slide into third base.

All Peavy has to do is keep himself under control through early July. If so, don’t be surprised to see No. 44 start on the mound during the All-Star game in San Francisco.