Ravens, Jets could upset AFC Championship picture

The Indianapolis Colts and San Diego Chargers have both opened as at least one-touchdown favorites in this weekend’s NFL Divisional playoffs, but they better be careful.

The Baltimore Ravens and New York Jets each demonstrated over the past weekend that they are teams to be reckoned with. In fact, they could become the first No. 5 and No. 6 seeds ever to meet for a conference championship … which would set up yet one more game at the old Meadowlands home of the Jets.

How about those Ravens? With their 33-14 win Sunday at New England (the Patriots’ first-ever playoff loss at Gillette Stadium), they even caused the hometown fans to boo Tom Brady and his teammates.

Baltimore will be a formidable foe for Peyton Manning and the Colts led by its strong running game with Ray Rice and Willis McGahee. And the Ray Lewis-led defense, which caused Brady to tie a career playoff high with three interceptions, is always a force in the postseason.

As for the Jets – coming off a 24-14 playoff win at Cincinnati – they pose an interesting strength vs. strength against the potent Chargers offense led by Philip Rivers and pass catchers Vincent Jackson, Antonio Gates and Malcom Floyd. New York has the league's No. 1 defense and will match up against that San Diego offense with a defensive roster including cornerback Darrelle Revis, probably the best cover back in the NFL.

Not only that, the Jets can control the ball with a running game including the likes of Thomas Jones and Shonn Greene. They will be facing a San Diego defense that has been hard-pressed to stop the run all season.

Yes, Indianapolis and San Diego should each win this weekend and advance to the AFC Championship Game. But don’t be surprised if at least one of them is missing come the conference title game.

Rivers clearly better QB than Eli Manning

Eli Manning never did want to come to the San Diego Chargers in 2004 because he thought San Diego had the worst team in the NFL.

Well, Eli, here is some news for you.

Since your refusal to come to San Diego when the Chargers made you the number one draft pick in 2004; the Chargers have yet to experience a losing season.

Not only that, they are now 2-0 against you with Sunday’s 21-20 win over you and your New York Giants at the Meadowlands.

Clearly, Philip Rivers has been better statistically over his career than you.

Besides that, Rivers led the Chargers on an 8-play, 80-yard drive in 1:46 to beat you with a last-minute pass of 18 yards to Vincent Jackson.

(This came after you and the Giants were unable to score a TD after an interception left you with first-and-goal at the Chargers 4 with 3:14 remaining. With a TD, you would’ve clinched the game with a 10-point lead.)

Certainly, Eli, you have the Super Bowl ring that Rivers does not.

However, it’s not always the best QB who wins the Super Bowl. Do you really believe Trent Dilfer was the league’s best QB when the Baltimore Ravens won the Super Bowl?

All things considered, Rivers has turned out to be a better QB than you, Eli.

Jamal Williams' loss could bring Chargers down

The loss of Jamal Williams to a triceps injury could be devastating to the San Diego Chargers in 2009. The demotion of Chris Chambers could be a positive if it happened.

More than anyone (including Shawne Merriman when he was healthy), Williams is the key to the Chargers’ defense. At nose tackle, he’s normally taking on two people and freeing up someone else to (hopefully) make the tackle.

From 2005-07, Williams’ peers recognized him as an All-Pro. That was no surprise. The only surprise was that he did not get named a Pro Bowler sooner in his career.

The impact of Williams was certainly never displayed more than in the 2002 season. The Chargers were 8-4 and probably on their way to the playoffs before a cheap shot by Denver Broncos offensive lineman Steve Herndon ended Williams’ season. Without Williams, the Chargers lost their last four games and headed home for the postseason.

It was no coincidence that when Williams went down, so did the Chargers.

As for Chambers, his best days at wide receiver seem to be behind him. He’s gone from 82 receptions and 11 touchdowns for the Miami Dolphins in 2005 to 33 catches and 5 TDs for the Chargers last season … and this year looks worse so far.

Chambers caught just 2 of 10 passes targeted to him (20%) in last week’s 31-26 loss to the Baltimore Ravens. The remainder of the team caught nearly 80% of the passes thrown their way.

It’s too bad Williams had to go … but looking more and more like Chambers might need to do the same.

Bad weekend for SoCal's 'elite' football teams

You could see the USC Trojans’ loss coming from a mile away over the weekend.

For the San Diego Chargers, you could see it from more like seven yards away (thanks Ray Lewis.)

The difference between the Chargers losing in the NFL and USC losing in the NCAA is huge: The Chargers could probably lose seven more games and still have a chance at winning the Super Bowl. USC is out of losses for a chance at the national championship.

Why is it that Pete Carroll can always win the big games at USC, yet the little one seems to escape him each year?

It happened with Stanford in 2007, Oregon State in 2008 and last weekend at the University of Washington.

Each year, that one stumble has kept/will keep the Trojans out of the title hunt.

It’s really too bad that the Trojans play on the West Coast because one loss and you’re out. Play in the more publicized Southeastern Conference or Big Ten and one loss keeps you in the hunt.

As for the Chargers, they’re in such a bad division that an 8-8 record likely gets them to the playoffs.

Still, that’s not excuse for the horrible play calling in the end with a fourth-and-2 at the Baltimore Ravens 15.

The Chargers had been averaging 2.5 yards per rush and were getting blown off the line of scrimmage with an injury-depleted offensive line. Yet coach Norv Turner still went with the run on the decisive play when everyone at Qualcomm Stadium (especially Ray Lewis) could see that it was going to be a run by Darren Sproles.

San Diego has still yet to block Lewis on that play.

It was a bad weekend for the Chargers; a horrible one for USC. See you next year, Trojans!

Chargers' offensive line could be downfall

The last time the San Diego Chargers missed the playoffs, in 2005, it was because their offensive line was in shambles.

Say hello to déjà vu thus far in 2009.

Already, the team has lost center Nick Hardwick (ankle) and likely right guard Louis Vasquez (knee) for this week’s home opener vs. the Baltimore Ravens.

Add Jeromey Clary at right tackle along with the two injured players and you have a very weak right side of the line.

(Don’t you think the Ravens will exploit this on Sunday?)

Even left tackle Marcus McNeill (ankle) should have come out of Monday’s 24-20 win at Oakland in the fourth quarter, but he continued to play since the Chargers were flat out of reserve linemen.

So what does this mean for Sunday?

You’ll likely see Scott Mruczkowski (center) and guard Brandon Dombrowski (guard) make their first career NFL starts vs. Baltimore.

Does this bode well for the Chargers? Not really.

Prediction:
Ravens 23, Chargers 17

Chargers have easiest path to playoffs

The San Diego Chargers certainly have the path of least resistance to the NFL playoffs.

Who wouldn’t want to be in a division with the Denver Broncos, Kansas City Chiefs and Oakland Raiders (none ranked higher than 25th of 32 teams in ESPN’s preseason poll?)

The Chargers can definitely afford another 1-3 start because a 7-9 record could win this AFC West division.

But there’s no reason to start so slowly.

Tonight’s season opener at Oakland is a virtual gimmie; La Dainian Tomlinson eats these guys alive in the Black Hole.

Then there are home games vs. the Baltimore Ravens and Miami Dolphins; neither of which looked real strong on opening weekend.

Week 4 is at the Pittsburgh Steelers, before a bye week.

The Chargers should be at least 2-2 at their bye; most likely 3-1. But again, no matter what the record early on, making the playoffs should be a breeze. (After all, five games against the AFC West from Oct. 19-Nov. 29 should put distance between the Chargers and the rest of the division.)

The big question marks with this team are pass defense, offensive line, and running back depth considering Tomlinson’s health the past two years.

But all things considered, with six games against the Weak Weak AFC West, the Chargers should finish 10-6 or better this season.

It would be enough to earn at least one home game in the playoffs, and then we go from there.

The ride should be smooth; until January. Then, the real season begins.

Prediction:
Chargers 27, Raiders 7

Chargers, Ravens ran on empty in playoffs

Let’s face it: The Baltimore Ravens simply ran out of gas in the playoffs.

Too many injuries. Too many road games.

(Not to mention the fact that the Pittsburgh Steelers are a better team.)

Does it remind you of somebody from a year ago?

Remember when the wounded Chargers went to the AFC Championship game a year ago with quarterback Philip Rivers coming off knee surgery, RB LaDainian Tomlinson unable to play nearly the entire game, and tight end Antonio Gates barely able to walk?

The Chargers had too many injuries and one too many road games ... not to mention that the (then) undefeated New England Patriots were the better team.

Ironically, nowadays, it often seems as if the road teams and the lower seeds have a better opportunity than the higher seeds to make the Super Bowl.

How often have you seen No. 1 seeds lose their first playoff games (re, the New York Giants and Tennessee Titans this season; not to mention the Chargers two seasons ago.)

Even so, in the end, being at home and being a higher seed did matter in the NFL playoffs.

How many people think the Arizona Cardinals would have won an NFC Championship game at Philadelphia? And don’t you think Baltimore would’ve had a better chance at home against Pittsburgh?

All things considered, I’d take my chances as a home team with a higher seed in the playoffs.

Chargers seek to create more history

Let’s go back to a couple history lessons.

We all know that the Chargers:

Were the first team ever to start a season 0-4 and make the playoffs (1992)
Are the only team ever to start 4-8 and make the playoffs (2008)
Are the only team ever to win a division after being three games back with three to play (2008)

Now, can the Chargers write even more history?

If the Chargers and Baltimore Ravens both win in the coming weekend, the Chargers will be the first fourth-seeded team ever to host an AFC (or NFC) Championship.

The Ravens play Saturday afternoon at Tennessee; the Chargers on Sunday afternoon at Pittsburgh.

If they both win, they become the first No. 4 vs. No. 6 seeded teams to meet for a conference championship ... not the mention the Chargers would be the first 8-8 regular season team ever to host a title game.

The chances of it happening are about as big as Darren Sproles, but no offensive player had a better weekend.

With a lot of luck, it could be Ravens at Chargers on Jan. 18 to decided the AFC representative in the Super Bowl.

And by the way, if you have tickets for the Jan. 17 Monster Jam at Qualcomm Stadium, you might think about alternate plans that night.

The event could be postponed due to an AFC Championship Game the next day!

Chargers will clinch AFC West on Christmas Eve

As poorly as they have played much of this season, the Chargers will clinch the AFC West by beating Denver on Christmas Eve.

Neither team has an overly difficult schedule between now and then … but both are capable of losing to anybody.

The Chargers (6-5) travel to Kansas City and Tennessee the next two weeks before hosting Detroit and Denver back-to-back.

The Broncos (5-6) travel to Oakland, host Kansas City, then are at Houston prior to meeting the Chargers.

When the Chargers and Broncos meet on Christmas Eve (Monday night) in San Diego, they will likely be tied or the Chargers will have a one-game lead.

Since the Chargers already beat Denver earlier this year, they would own the tiebreaker over the Broncos with a second win.

In Sunday’s 32-14 win over a hapless Baltimore Ravens’ team, at least the Chargers showed a little bit of their 2006 form.

Philip Rivers didn’t turn the ball over, Antonio Gates caught two TD passes and LaDainian Tomlinson surpassed 10,000 career rushing yards.

The defense also showed its old tendency with four sacks.

Although this Sunday’s game at Kansas City (4-7) may seem like a lock, two things must be taken into consideration.

The Chargers are just 1-4 on the road, and they suffered their only regular-season home loss in two years back in September against the Chiefs.

With this team, nothing can be taken for granted.