Greg Maddux had a simple message for fellow Padres pitchers during spring training:Don’t worry about the runner on first base. He is only 17 percent more likely to score if he steals second base than if he doesn’t steal second.
Apparently, Chris Young was listening.
Opposing teams are 18-for-18 in stolen base attempts against Young. They are 16-for-16 against Maddux.
Based on the 17 percent theory, one out of six runners who otherwise would not have scored did so by stealing second. (Broken down, that means Young/Maddux have allowed six more runs than if they had not given up the stolen bases.)
Young has a 6-3 record with a 2.19 ERA. Maddux is 4-3 with a 3.92 ERA.
Even though Maddux’s logic doesn’t seem logical, who can argue with the results?
1 comment:
A very nice column....I think it would be interesting to explore the 17 percent figure. where did it come from? And, if that's true, what about sacrifices? If a SB only improves run scoring by 17%, a sacrifice must be lower (if not hurtful) for scoring runs, since the team is sacrificing an out.
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